The Future of Financial Inclusion in Brazil
Reseach Abstract
This report comprehensively analyzes and answers the question: What is the future of financial inclusion of the unbanked in Brazil as it relates to trends and changes in the economy, government policies, and technological innovations? Financial inclusion in Brazil hinges on three main forces of change including: economic growth, foreign investment, the rise of the middle class, and an increase in literacy and financial education. Financial inclusion is also greatly impacted by different constraints and uncertainties such as political corruption, geographic limitations, and mobile hacking.
To forecast these forces of change, constraints, and uncertainties, twenty years of historical data was used to project ten years into the future. In using this evidence to create baseline forecasts, the Aspirational Futures method was used to delineate potential scenarios.
The expected scenario, “Onward and Upward,” projects steady growth in financial inclusion. The “Bubble Bursts” scenario allows for the constraints to take control, which causes an overall decline. The “Second Half Turnaround” and “Samba to the Top” scenarios, on the other hand, both predict growth impacted by different changing forces, constraints, and uncertainties.